The outlook is still better than for much of the U.S.
AMARILLO, TEXAS -- The local economic outlook as a whole is not sunny. After months of avoiding the pain of the global crisis, several key areas took hits.
Vehicle sales and building permits issued are way down, and cattle feeders are struggling.
In fact, every economic indicator is down except for retail sales numbers from November. How those numbers look for December could really tell us how consumer confidence is locally.
While local experts are quick to point out that Amarillo is not as bad as other areas, they are starting to use the "r" word: recession.
They say it is normal to see economic highs and lows and that moving forward, despite the crisis, is how the Panhandle region has always survived.
"We learned a long time ago we don't have control over the weather or the people in Washington, and it's just business as usual around here, no matter what happens. Whether we're in a drought seeking moisture or no matter what the crazies in Washington are doing this week or next," said Pat Ware, Amarillo National Bank Assistant Vice President.
Ware said one big area to keep an eye on is employment. He says that if we suddenly lose a big employer or see major job cuts it could drastically change our outlook.
"Employment is the biggest number we look at and that's what drives everything from sales to construction and everything," said Ware. "As long as the jobs stay steady...and we're expecting some declines but we don't think it's going to be a steep decline."
The struggling commodities industries could also affect the local economy.
Besides cattle feeders taking a hit, oil prices are down and farmers are praying for rain.
"We watch the ag commodities in this area and what we need from that is we need moisture to help that out, but those prices we've seen come down a lot since last fall," said Ware.
Amarillo National Bank predicts the next four months will be slow but after that, it is hard to tell.
