Government reports about the U.S. corn crop have become increasingly unreliable of late, contributing to wild swings in corn prices, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows.
Over the past two years, the Department of Agriculture's monthly forecasts of how much farmers will harvest have been off the mark to a greater degree than any other two consecutive years in the last 15, according to a Journal analysis of government data. This year's early-season forecasts also appear to have been way off.
The next monthly report is due on Friday. At the same time, periodic stockpile reports-government estimates of how much corn is stored in farm silos and other storage facilities-have generated big surprises. The average monthly swings in stockpile estimates between May and October, the heart of the growing season, have been greater this year than in any year since 1996, according to the Journal analysis.
Over the past two years, the Department of Agriculture's monthly forecasts of how much farmers will harvest have been off the mark to a greater degree than any other two consecutive years in the last 15, according to a Journal analysis of government data. This year's early-season forecasts also appear to have been way off. T
he next monthly report is due on Friday. At the same time, periodic stockpile reports-government estimates of how much corn is stored in farm silos and other storage facilities-have generated big surprises. The average monthly swings in stockpile estimates between May and October, the heart of the growing season, have been greater this year than in any year since 1996, according to the Journal analysis. USDA officials blame unpredictable weather for recent errant production forecasts.
They say the figures are snapshots that change based on fresh information, such as damage caused by heat waves or changes in consumption patterns. The information contained in these reports at times have caused the market to have limit moves. Locally, I have heard more than a few times that producers were having a hard time believing some of the information contained in these reports
Our next report is due out on Friday morning at 7:30am, be sure to tune into Daybreak for the details every Friday morning at 6:05 for more with Donna Hughes.
