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Sept. 28 Market Talk
Posted: 09.28.2011 at 12:18 PM
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CORN
After a promising start yesterday, the corn failed to hold gains then proceeded lower overnight. The December contract has moved back to test the support at the 200 day moving average, but weakness in the stock market could drag the corn down to the recent low of $6.30. The corn is at a good position on the charts to resume the trend higher, but traders seem to be waiting to get Friday's stocks report behind us before buying aggressively.
WHEAT
The KC Wheat managed not to give up all of yesterday's gains, but traders will be watching the corn and the stock market for signs of further weakness. News is still limited for the wheat except for the poor planting conditions in the HRW Belt. Another month of dry weather and traders may finally get excited about the wheat market.
SOYBEANS
Like corn, yesterday's rally attempt basically failed in the soybeans and there was considerable weakness overnight. The soybeans need to get back into the multi-month trading range in order to confirm a bottom, but the market hasn't managed that yet. The bulls really need to see some good export sales news in order to get this market moving.
LIVE CATTLE
Live Cattle futures closed moderately to sharply higher on Tuesday, with open interest rising over 2,700 contracts on the day. Support from higher equities and a lower Dollar had new money flowing to the long side of the market. Beef prices struggled, while demand seemed to be rising at the lower levels. Overnight tried to trade lower in early trade, but has now reversed more than 1.00 in the December contract. Analysts say we are testing major resistance levels in the fats.
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder Cattle futures posted their third consecutive powerful close on Tuesday with the highest close since the 1st of August. The inability of corn futures to hold early strength on Tuesday and the weaker grain trade overnight should help extend current gains in the feeders. Strength in the deferred live cattle will help as well. October futures are getting well ahead of the current cash index, with the premium nearing 8.00 per hundredweight.
CRUDE OIL
November crude oil prices grinded higher during the initial morning hours, fueled by weakness in the US Dollar and a rebound in global equity markets. Some traders suggested that the crude oil trade remained closely linked to developments out of the Eurozone, as leaders their work toward an agreement in containing the debt crisis. It is also possible that the crude oil market drafted support from inventory data released after the close yesterday that showed a smaller than expected build. Expectations for today's EIA report are for crude oil inventories to have increased around 1.0 to 1.5 million.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.
