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Oct. 6 Market Talk
Posted: 10.06.2011 at 4:14 PM
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CORN
Export sales were great at 1.29 MMT. This is the kind of sales number the bulls need to see for a few weeks in order to make USDA question their current export estimate. One would hope that the recent price break would attract demand, and perhaps it has. On the charts the close above $6.00 in the December contract is constructive and $6.50, the 38% retracement, is now a reasonable upside objective ahead of Wednesday's Supply and Demand Report.
WHEAT
Wheat export sales weren't too good at 431,200 MT. Sales like that won't help the bullish cause. The charts look better though, and it looks like the KC and Chicago markets are set for a recovery, while the Minneapolis wheat may be started on another leg higher. As long as we have some stability in the stock market, analysts think that the grain markets can trade independently of the financial markets.
SOYBEANS
The soybeans definitely lagged behind the other markets yesterday. The beans are trying to carve out a bottom, but since there hasn't been a significant bounce yet, $11.20 is still in play. Export sales were solid at 701,800 MT of beans and 285,500 MT of meal. China was the big bean buyer, which is both expected and necessary for the health of the soybean market.
CATTLE COMPLEX
The cattle market traded higher early in the session, finding support from news of higher cash cattle trades late yesterday and from ideas that the US economy may not be as bad off as previously feared. News of higher cash market trades in Nebraska yesterday plus a more positive tilt to the economy, or at least lower fears of a double-dip recession, were thought to have provided solid underlying support. Packer demand was stronger than expected this week as cash cattle traded at $190.00-$191.00 in Nebraska, steady to higher from last week's levels. A surge higher in the US stock market along with weakness in the US Dollar added to the positive tone yesterday and global equity strength overnight could provide a positive demand tone for cattle during today's trading. The estimated cattle slaughter came in at 131,000 head yesterday. This brings the total for the week so far to 391,000 head, up from 389,000 head last week at this time and up from 386,000 head a year ago. Boxed beef cutout values were up 44 cents at mid-session yesterday and closed 50 cents higher at $184.24. This was up from $183.00 the prior week and is the highest beef trade since September 22nd.
CRUDE OIL
November crude oil prices traded higher during the overnight and early morning hours, supported by talk of support for the European banking sector as well as supply concerns following yesterday's EIA data. Those concerns were triggered by the crude oil stocks report that showed a surprisingly large weekly decline of 4.679 million barrels. They remained 24.664 million barrels below year ago levels but 5.97 million above the five year average. Crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma came in at 30.09 million barrels, which was the lowest since March 2010. Part of the unexpected draw came from a plunge in crude oil imports, which were down 10.3% to a rate of 8.7 million barrels per day. The refinery operating rate slipped 0.1% to 87.7%, compared to 83.1% last year and the five year average of 85.21%.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.
