Oct. 11 Market Talk
Posted: 10.11.2011 at 2:19 PM

CORN
 
The corn market is still working on carving out a bottom.  The December contract took out last week's high and made a positive close, albeit the close was at the bottom end of the range.  Tomorrow is the October Supply and Demand Report, so we will have our yield and acreage questions answered.  A lot of negative news has been built into the market so it won't be surprising to see strength in the corn ahead of the report according to analysts.
 
WHEAT
 
The wheat posted a rather poor close in relation to yesterday's early strength, but there was more buying overnight which is encouraging.  There isn't any news out there that would provide the wheat with independent strength, so the wheat will be waiting on gains in the corn in order to move higher.  As usual, what this market needs is some fresh demand news.
 
SOYBEANS
 
The soybeans have been the upside leader so far this week.  Chinese demand has been solid and basis levels around the country have been improving.  Prices have gotten low enough to attract demand, which is what markets are supposed to do.  Barring an extremely bearish report tomorrow, analysts say one should look for the November soybeans to rebound back to the $12.70 area.
 
LIVE CATTLE
 
Live Cattle reversed early strength to close sharply lower on Monday.  The selloff appears to be widespread liquidation of long positions.  Open interest is reported down 22,000 contracts for the day.  Most of the liquidation was reported in the lead October contract, ahead of first deliveries.  No deliveries were posted, with the market rebounding moderately in the front months.  Show lists appear smaller.  Outside market influences are slightly negative this morning.
 
FEEDER CATTLE
 
Feeder Cattle futures managed to hold onto moderate gains on Monday, with the exception of the October contract.  October continues to carry a large premium to the cash index.  With just over two weeks to go before expiration, the gap between cash and futures is likely to close from one or both directions rather quickly.  Overnight activity was firmer across the board in the feeders, with corn trading modestly higher on the close.  The market appears to have more than adequate support on any sell offs according to analysts.
 
CRUDE OIL

November crude oil prices traded lower during the initial morning hours, pressured by a rebound in the US dollar and weakness across most risk assets. The outside market tone took on a more defensive posture this morning ahead of a final vote on the European bailout fund in Slovakia and after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet warned of "systemic danger" in the financial system. In the meantime, OPEC released their September monthly report this morning and lowered their 2011 global oil demand growth forecasts, below 1.0 million barrels per day for the first time this year. Some traders suggested that a surprise element in the report was the notion that OPEC supply might be lower than expected.

 


By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes.  Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities.  After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market.  It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr.  Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry.  In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals.  Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas.  She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.

Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.

donna hughes