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April 25 Market Talk
Posted: 04.25.2012 at 8:58 AM
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CORN
The corn got back what it lost yesterday and the BSE fears should go away fairly soon. Traders should be more concerned about tight supplies, rising basis and improving exports. Bull spreading should be active today due to the old crop demand, but it will be interesting to see how much support the December contract gets from the rising soybeans. There has to be some concern that acres are being switched to soybeans regardless of the planting pace. The $5.50 - $5.56 area will be key resistance for the December contract.
WHEAT
The wheat charts were beginning to look bullish yesterday until the corn fell and pulled the wheat down with it. There still isn't much reason to buy wheat unless the corn is moving higher. Analysts expect to see a rebound today, but say we have to look at rallies in the wheat as a selling opportunity, especially, especially in the deferred contracts.
SOYBEANS
It is becoming more and more apparent that USDA is underestimating old crop exports by 50-100 million bushels and therefore overstating ending stocks by an equal amount. The amount of bull spreading in the market is obviously telling us that end users fear tight supplies this summer. The $14.70 objective has been surpassed making a retest of the 2008 highs for the next major upside objective according to analysts.
LIVE CATTLE
Live Cattle futures imploded as rumors of a BSE case in California circulated in the last couple of hours of open outcry trade on Tuesday. The rumors were confirmed by the USDA at 2pm, with a central California dairy cow identified as the subject. The animal did not enter the food chain, with current precautions effective. Overnight the board had shown some recovery, with the soon to expire April contract nearly a dollar higher. Some light cash trade was secured on the break, as hedgers took advantage of the selloff to secure solid basis sales at the $119 level. Key to how the market reacts could be in the hands of exports.
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder Cattle futures closed limit lower through to the deferred end of year contracts. Cash markets will be monitored in coming days, as the market digests how the world is reacting to the news. Analysts believe that the market remains fundamentally sound, with feedyards becoming more short on cattle as the summer grilling season approaches. As cattle feeders post losses on current marketings, replacement money is expected to become tighter.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.
