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September 24 Market Talk
Posted: 09.24.2012 at 9:43 AM
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CORN
The corn market is set for another directionless trading day. Fresh news is limited. Harvest is nearly half done and yields are still poor, but so are export sales. The Dollar is building on last week's gains, which won't help the Ag markets either. Plan on two sided trading today. There is no reason to get excited about the corn until the market moves out of the recent range.
WHEAT
The wheat started the overnight trade with follow through buying, but the trade quickly turned two sided. By the end of the day the wheat probably still has the best chance at a positive close due to the improving world supply and demand outlook. It is thought that the Russians are probably out of wheat, which means our exports should improve soon. A close over $9.50 this week in the December KW would be very bullish according to analysts.
SOYBEANS
The soybean market took another hit overnight. $15.80 is good support in the November contract say analysts, and the overnight low was $15.90. There is talk of better than expected yields, but unless production is drastically higher, we are going to use every we produce. If production isn't drastically higher, then prices are too low. Last week's huge break has succeeded in creating more demand, which means the market is not doing it's job of slowing demand. Analysts plan on higher prices down the road.
LIVE CATTLE
Live Cattle futures closed mixed to mostly higher on Friday, ahead of the On Feed Report. The report showed 99% On Feed, 89% Placed and 95% Marketed. The numbers are friendly to the Feb-April time frame, with marketing totals negative to the front end. Placements were particularly low in the 600 pound category, where they were down 33%. A retest of contract highs in the 2013 contracts is a good possibility say analysts. Outside markets are pointing to a risk off day, with the Dollar higher and equities backing off.
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder Cattle futures rallied on Friday, with modest gains for the week. The lower than expected placements should be supportive. Overnight corn values were modestly lower. Look for feeders to remain range bound over the near term.
CRUDE OIL
The energy complex has started out this week under fresh pressure, as fears of global economic slowing are generating negative market news headlines again. With a stronger Dollar and weakness in a long list of physical commodity markets, many traders feel that there appears to be a "risk-off" vibe throughout global markets. Weaker economic sentiment is at least partially the result of today's surprisingly weak German Ifo reading, as that has rekindled concerns of sagging energy demand in the Euro zone. While crude oil might find some support from news of a Chinese product purchase, fears of global economic slowing are still likely to dominate energy trading today. In fact, some energy traders might be watching major global equity markets today as further weakness in that sector could lead to additional pressure for physical commodity markets. However, crude oil might find some minor early support this morning from a series of cooler than expected US temperature readings from over the weekend.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.