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September 25 Market Talk
Posted: 09.25.2012 at 12:48 PM
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CORN
The range of guesses for Friday's Quarterly Stocks estimate is 374 million bushels, which goes to show that nobody really has a clue what USDA is going to come up with. Yesterday the December corn slipped to a new low for the move, but selling pressure quickly dried up after that and the market has seen strength overnight. It really looks like we will have yet another sideways session.
WHEAT
The wheat was surprisingly weak yesterday as that market succumbed to the pressure in the corn and soybeans. Analysts anticipate that we will see the wheat market make up for yesterday's poor performance quickly since Russian whet prices are still rising and rain still is absent in the dry areas of the Hard Red Winter Wheat Belt. Analysts look for the December Kansas City Wheat contract to move back above $9.25 soon.
SOYBEANS
The soybeans still can't seem to catch a break despite all the fresh Chinese buying that is reported. There must be a number of traders that are convinced the USDA will increase the production estimate in the October Supply and Demand Report. A production increase is possible, but it seems highly likely that any extra production will be used and we won't be building any surplus. A close above $16.26 in the November contract should begin to generate some technical buy signals, say analysts.
LIVE CATTLE
Live Cattle futures closed modestly lower to begin the week and were recovering a like amount in overnight trade. Show lists appear to be steady to slightly smaller overall, with October contracts becoming available next week. Lower cutout values and a slow kill to begin the week point to a steady cash outlook at best. Outside market influences look to have a more of a risk on day, with a lower Dollar value and higher equities.
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder Cattle futures closed modestly higher on Monday, with the gap between Live Cattle and Feeders widening to their widest levels in recent weeks. Corn futures are firming this morning, recovering the losses from Monday. Any significant recovery in corn should lead to a moderate selloff in the Feeders, say analysts. If so, a move toward the bottom of the recent channel would seem reasonable.
CRUDE OIL
November crude oil grinded higher during the initial morning hours, supported by a modest increase in geopolitical tensions. The outside market tone showed marginal improvement during the initial morning hours, and that might have lent an added level of support to the crude oil market. Reports that the US has tightened up sanctions against Iran's state oil company in an attempt to control the country's nuclear program, as well as increasing rhetoric out of Iran over a potential military attack on Israel has stoked the geopolitical risk premium in the crude oil market. Some traders were also of the view that the recent peak to trough decline in November crude oil of nearly 10% had become technically oversold.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.