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September 26 Market Talk
Posted: 09.26.2012 at 10:19 AM
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CORN
The December corn slipped just below Monday's low keeping the sideways/lower pattern intact. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see a close near unchanged, which would set us up for another directionless day tomorrow. Some analysts are still looking for a move down to $7.18, which certainly shouldn't be ruled out, but the market isn't getting in a big hurry about it. The market is said to be oversold and due for a bounce, but that has been the case for about a month, so analysts warn against trying to pick a bottom.
WHEAT
Technically, analysts say the charts now suggest that the market will be moving down to the bottom end of the trading range. $9.00 may provide some support in the December KW, but if it fails, analysts look for a move to $8.85. The direction of the wheat the rest of the week could be impacted by the Egyptians and whether or ot they buy US wheat this week.
SOYBEANS
The November soybeans still haven't reached the $15.80 retracement level, but the market is getting closer. Yesterday's failed rally didn't impress the bears and we ended up with a new low for the move overnight. This break is attracting demand from the Chinese, but speculators do not seem to care. The talk is of better yields and harvest pressure. Analysts say plan on more sideways/lower trade.
LIVE CATTLE
Live Cattle futures closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with the active December contract limit down. The sharp selloff has this week's cash trade in a quandary, as feedlots scramble to adjust to the possible strong basis opportunities. Packer bids will likely drop several dollars below last week's cash, while offers fall to $125 in the south. Overnight trade was seeing positive trade in the front months, with deferred contracts modestly lower. Outside influences are negative, with the Dollar higher and equities softer.
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder Cattle futures declined sharply along with the fats on Tuesday. Weaker cash trade on Monday appears to be the other catalyst for the break in the feeders. Closeout losses over the past two-three months appears to finally be taking it's toll on the feeders. Overnight corn prices have fallen a full ten cents to new lows for the move. In spite of that, feeders remain lower on the session. Hedgers will be there to sell any decent rally effort in this market.
CRUDE OIL
November crude oil had a gap lower open Tuesday evening and has continued to decline during the overnight and initial morning hours to the lowest level since August 3rd. Gains in the US dollar and weakness in global equity markets have fostered a risk-off attitude. A 24 hour workers; strike in Greece, anti-austerity protests in Spain and growing concerns that recent central bank measures will do little to fuel economic growth are key forces weighing on the crude oil demand outlook. Mounting tensions between China and Japan, as well as a deteriorating situation in Europe have taken some of the focus away from Iran this morning. However, tensions in the Middle East are far from resolved and are likely to limit downside action in the crude oil market. It is also possible that private industry data released late Tuesday that showed a smaller than expected build in US crude supplies could be limiting the slide in November crude oil. Expectations for today's EIA report are for a build in the range of 1.5 million barrels, which compares to the five year average build for this week of the year of 1.2 million barrels. November crude oil broke below support at $90.96, which leaves the potential for a deeper slide to $88.08. However, short term oversold momentum indicators, below average trading volume during yesterday's outside day reversal and a steep 10% downdraft from the mid-September peak of $100.73 warrant caution. Psychological support in November crude oil comes in at $90.00.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.