September 27 Market Talk
Posted: 09.27.2012 at 9:26 AM

CORN
 
The December corn is getting closer to the $7.18 support.  the overnight low was $7.19 1/2.  Traders are still afraid of wheat USDA might come up with in tomorrow's report and there is still talk about harvest pressure.  It doesn't help that the ethanol production figure was down yesterday and export sales were a pathetic 400 MT thanks to another batch of cancellations.  Basis levels are improving because harvest is basically half done and end users are trying to secure supplies, but that isn't helping the futures at this point.  The best the bulls can hope for today is short covering ahead of the report.
 
WHEAT
 
December KW made it to the bottom of the trading range yesterday and analysts say that most likely that support will hold barring some kind of disaster in the corn tomorrow.  Export sales were down from last week at 426,000 MT, which is still a little light.  At some point, we should see better sales numbers as Russian supplies dry up, but we haven't got to that point yet. 
 
SOYBEANS
 
Export sales were tremendous as expected and it is anticipated that they will be again next week.  Meal sales were huge and bean oil sales were quite large as well.  The recent price break has been a gift to the world and the world is taking advantage of it.  The charts still look terrible and yesterday's failure of the $15.80 support suggests a move to $15.50 is possible, say analysts.  The fundamentals are saying to buy it now and the technicals say more pressure ahead, so we will see who wins out after tomorrow's report.
 
CATTLE COMPLEX
 
Live Cattle futures settled lower yesterday on continued fund liquidation and lower cash markets.  Open interest dropped by about 4,200 contracts.  Feeder Cattle held up pretty well yesterday obviously due to the large drop in corn futures.  This morning's cattle are trading moderately higher and we could see a rebound in futures as the market is thought to be oversold.
 
CRUDE OIL

November crude oil prices trended higher throughout the overnight and initial morning hours, supported by prospects for more Chinese monetary support and modest uptick in Middle East tensions. The outside market tone is also showing signs of improvement from yesterday's action, with global equities higher and US dollar lower. Risk appetites garnered support on reports that the PBOC injected a record amount of funds into the market this week. Tensions regarding Iran's nuclear program provided an added measure of support to the crude oil market following Ahmadinejad's UN address that did little to calm relations with Israel. This topic could gain more traction today in front of Israel PM Netanyahu UN address. Another supportive feature for the crude oil market that was somewhat lost in yesterday's downdraft is EIA crude stocks data. EIA crude stocks fell 2.446 million barrels, which was quite different than expectations for a build. EIA crude stocks are 24.217 million barrels above year ago levels and 34.491 million barrels above the five year average. Behind the unexpected draw was a sharp decline in imports to the slowest rate since December 2011. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 7.595 million barrels per day compared to 9.848 million barrels the previous week. The refinery operating rate was down 1.5% to 87.4%, which compares to 87.8% last year and the five year average of 83.59%. The positive outside market tone offers the bull camp the early advantage and chance for a further rebound toward $91.80. However, the intermediate term trend points down, with resistance at $93.20.

 


There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.

Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.