Corn
Corn futures are called 6 to 9 cents lower this morning, following the overnight trade on Globex. Nearby May was sharply lower last week. Preliminary open interest for Friday showed net new selling of 3,170 contracts. The weekly CFTC report showed Managed Money had decreased their net long by 8,970 contracts in the reporting week ending April 10. Combined Managed Money and Index Funds held a net long of 483,632 contracts (2.4 billion bushels). Chicago locals report that somebody bought 5000 May 640 calls on Friday. February ethanol exports were 25% larger than in February 2011. We have seen estimates for tonight's USDA planting progress at anywhere from 15% to 30% completed. Chinese futures at Dalian were 7 cents lower on Monday. Globex prices were down 6 1/4 to 10 3/4 cents.
Soybeans
Soybeans are called 8 to 10 cents lower this morning. They were up 3 cents for the week on the spot contract. New crop November was down 14 cents last week on ideas that acres were being switched, or that double crop acres would be expanded. Index Funds decreased their net long by 15,185 contracts in the soybeans while Managed Money (large specs) increased their net long by 7,286 contracts. Private exporters announced another sale of 165,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2012/13 delivery on Friday. Chinese futures were 16 cents lower. Soy oil and palm oil were lower, but are still considerably higher than they were at the beginning of March. Globex soybean prices were down 9 1/2 to 10 3/4 cents.
Wheat
Wheat futures are expected to start the day 6 to 8 cents lower. KC wheat was down 19 cents last week, CBT was down 15 cents and MPLS was down 22 cents for the week. Improved moisture for HRW areas was the main bearish feature. The CFTC report showed Managed Money added 10,447 contracts to their net short CBT wheat position. Morocco was in the market for 180,000 MT of soft wheat. World wheat trade was up in March breaking the historical record of 2008/09 at 143.1 MMT. CBT futures prices on Globex were down 6 1/4 to 7 cents per bushel overnight. An improved rain outlook in the EU is expected to have prices there on the defensive today.
Cattle
Live Cattle are called 20 lower to 20 higher this morning. Nearby April was up $2.20 for last week. Futures remain below cash. There were no delivery notices vs. April futures. The oldest long is December 14. Some $122 clean up sales were reported in the cash market on Friday. Asking prices for this week are expected to start out around $124 in the south and $200 in the north. The Census report for beef and veal exports show a decline in exports for February from last year but Beef and Veal exports in 2011 were a record high of 2.788 million pounds. Wholesale prices were up on Friday, as Choice gained $1.81 and Select was up $.57.
Hogs
Lean Hog futures are expected to start the week 10 to 30 cents higher. Several contracts were limit down on Friday. The April contract is coming closer to the Lean Hog Index which settled at 82.44 on April 11th. April expires today. Cash hogs in IA/MN were $1.14 higher on Friday, WCB hogs were $0.81 higher and ECB hogs were $0.63 lower. Cash hog calls are 50 cents lower. Pork trading was slow to moderate Friday with mostly light to moderate demand and moderate offerings. The Carcass Cutout value was lower. The monthly Census report showed February pork exports were up 15% from last year at 455.3 million pounds.
Cotton
Cotton futures are trading 50 to 80 points lower this morning on the economic data out of Europe. US retail sales data, on the other hand, was +0.8% for March. May futures were up 354 points for the week. First notice day for May cotton is April 24th with Cert stocks not abundant at 106,895 bales. The world cash market is higher than futures with the Cotlook Index at 99.80. The weekly CFTC report showed Managed Money had a net short position in cotton as of Tuesday with Index Funds still net long by 49,566 contracts. Total US cotton commitments (shipped plus open contracts) are still 104% of the USDA estimate for the year despite the 400,000 bale hike in projected exports made on Tuesday's WASDE report.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.
