Corn
Corn futures are trading 1/2 to 2 1/4 cents lower. The market appears focused on crop condition ratings and not on the weakness of the euro vs. the dollar. US weekly Export sales will be out on Friday because of the holiday. Weekly ethanol production is expected to be released later today. Top soil moisture is already depleted in some major corn growing states. The % of cropland with short to very short moisture levels were IL - 63%, IA 51%, IN 71% and MO 77%. The afternoon forecast runs reduced likely rainfall totals for central IL out of this storm by about 1/2 inch. Chinese futures at Dalian are up 3 cents.
Soybeans
Soybeans are trading 4 3/4 to 7 1/2 cents lower. Basis levels are mostly at a discount with some river terminals at a premium. Farmer movement has been minimal since futures dropped below $14. A milder weather pattern which includes some precipitation over the next few days is putting pressure on prices but the 6 to 10 day forecast is calling for a return to above normal temperatures for almost every state east of the Rockies. Below normal precip is forecast for the southern 2/3 of the entire U.S. Weekly export sales will be out Friday because of Monday's holiday. Chinese futures at Dalian are down 10 cents.
Wheat
Wheat futures are trading 3 to 4 cents lower. KC was slightly higher yesterday due to forecasts for enough rain to halt harvest in Kansas. The dollar continues to rally and there are adequate world wheat supplies coming into this year's harvest. Harvest is 68% complete in Arkansas, 41% complete in Oklahoma and 14% complete in Missouri, way ahead of the five year averages for those states. We expect expanded double cropping of soybeans in those states with the early wheat harvest. The total winter wheat harvest is about 9% complete compared to 1% for the five year average.
Cattle
Cattle futures are currently trading 20 to 25 cents higher on Globex. Prices have corrected almost 50% of the up move from late April. Problems in the Eurozone pushed stocks lower and the dollar higher. Cash cattle sales in the South and the North were basically at a standstill with not enough activity for an adequate market test yesterday. Last week cattle sold for $121 in the Southern Plains and mostly $123 in the north. Dressed sales were $193 to $195. Asking prices are higher this week, but the basis is also attractive for hedgers. Wholesale beef prices were up yesterday. Choice beef was $1.28 higher and Select was $0.89 higher. As highlighted in the WSJ, restaurants are offering a number of innovative new cuts of beef to appeal to a more moderate budget and maximize returns per carcass.
Hogs
Lean Hogs are trading 77 to 100 higher on Globex. Pork trading interest picked up during the day yesterday and was considered moderate with moderate to good demand with light to moderate offerings. The cutout was $1.95 higher on 132.75 loads. Cash hogs were $0.78 higher in IA/MN, $0.94 higher in the WCB and $0.64 higher in the ECB as packers shared the wealth in order to get enough hogs in the door. The Lean Hog Index was down $0.28 at 84.98 on Friday.
Cotton
Cotton futures are currently trading 13 points higher. July closed lower yesterday, taking out the contract low posted last Wednesday. It was a 27 month low on the continuation chart. Buyers can choose to be hand to mouth as long as prices continue to erode. Cotton planting progress is ahead of the five year average by a few points. More rain is needed to help crop development and planting in dry land acres across West Texas. Certificated stocks were 132,633 bales unchanged from the previous day. Pressure from the macro markets weighed on cotton prices Wednesday. The Cotlook A index dropped 20 points to 82.90. On the ICE, the US futures are much cheaper.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.
