CORN
Corn stocks were friendly at 3.144 billion and the acreage was slightly negative at 96.4 million. The way the weather has been, some will make the case that we actually need those extra acres because yield is declining so rapidly. Basically, this report is already history and we will quickly go back to trading weather, which is still bullish.
WHEAT
Wheat stocks were slightly higher than expected, which is not a market mover. Acreage was up from last year at 56 million, but that was lower than expected, which supportive. Wheat will continue to follow the corn, the new fundamentals are just not enough to make the wheat move independently. $7.60 - $7.80 will still act as major reisstance for the September contract.
SOYBEANS
The soybean numbers weren't very friendly with higher than expected stocks at 667 million and higher than expected acreage at 76.1 million. If the weather was good this would be a very bearish acreage report, but the weather isn't good. Expect further declines in crop condition ratings. A move through $14.40 in the November beans would probably begin another leg higher according to analysts.
LIVE CATTLE
Live Cattle futures closed sharply higher on Thursday, and still no significant cash trade development. Today is the last trading day for the June contract, which is currently modestly above last weeks' southern cash highs. Outside markets look very supportive today, with equities sharply higher and the Dollar off 90 points. It was thought that this morning's quarterly grain report could be a market mover. Weather remains detrimental to weight gain, due to the sweltering heat. Short term trends have turned up.
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder Cattle futures posted triple digit gains on Thursday, as the market is choosing to follow fats higher rather than be pressured by the higher corn values. This morning's grain report will still be key to near term movement in the feeder. Trends remain lower, while timing should be improving.
CRUDE OIL
August crude oil prices traded sharply higher during the early morning hours, helped by an EU agreement aimed at relaxing borrowing costs in Spain and Italy. Risk assets across the globe appeared to embrace an agreement, and that has fostered ideas that global oil demand could turn higher. In addition to easing concerns over the European debt debacle, the crude oil market has also drafted support from tightening North Sea supply concerns.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.
