CORN
Yesterday's bounce back from early pressure and the follow through buying overnight suggests that the corn market has made a bottom according to analysts. The overall pattern is still sideways, so at this point analysts say we should look for the July corn to move back to the top of the trading range at the $6.70 area. There haven't been any fresh Chinese purchases announced this week, which is a little disappointing, but their price hasn't broken either, which means sales are still possible.
WHEAT
July KW fell through the $6.80 support, but the wheat complex in general made a very strong rebound yesterday. Export sales were good and there is some talk of dry weather in Eastern Europe, but there really isn't any market moving news out there. Oversold technical indicators and yesterday's rebound suggest more sideways trade ahead.
SOYBEANS
South American production estimates are shrinking again which increases our export prospects for both this year and next year. It looks like the soybeans are ready to resume the trend higher or at the very least retest the recent highs, say analysts. Additionally, they look for the July contract to possibly move back to the $13.80 area by early next week. Technical indicators appear to be bullish.
LIVE CATTLE
Live Cattle futures closed modestly higher on Thursday, after trading in a very wide range and on both sides of unchanged. This afternoon's Cattle on Feed Report is expected to be a feature today, with cash completed for the week. Outside markets are mixed, with a lower Dollar and lower equities offsetting. Thursday's export sales total of 52,000 MT was the highest ever recalled. Average estimates for the report are expecting 102.3% on feed, 102.7% placed and 99.5% marketed.
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder Cattle futures closed moderately higher on Thursday, led by .50 gains in the April contract. Cash index levels were off a bit, but daily averages appear to be stabilizing. Overnight saw continued firming in the corn futures, which seemed to weigh on the feeders. Analysts expect to see a two sided trade ahead of the placement numbers this afternoon. Chart patterns continue to argue for selling any extended rally effort.
CRUDE OIL
May crude oil prices took on a higher track during the overnight and initial morning hours but remained near the middle of yesterday's range. Some traders suggested that the crude oil market was still working through yesterday's weak economic data and potential demand implications. The crude oil market appears to be gaining support from a favorable outside market tone, with a breakdown in the US dollar and modest gains in global equity markets. Some players suggested that this week's more than $4.00 slide into yesterday's low might be attracting some bargain-hunting interest. There were comments from the IEA earlier this morning, reaffirming Saudi Arabia's commitment to compensate global oil markets with a loss of production from Iran.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.
