When looking through 7-day forecasts from stations across the nation, I noticed a not-so-subtle difference in many of them. Some meteorologists use percentages to tell you the chances of rain across the region. Some like to give you a general area where storms will occur, some leave out a description altogether and rely solely on the graphics, and others replace percentages with a word that makes it easier to explain what will happen, to the viewers.
Here at Pronews 7, in the Storm Search 7 Command Center, we strive to bring you the most accurate forecast. But even the most accurate forecast in the world would be over-looked if it were hard to understand. Our job is to tell you what the weather conditions will be in the next 7 days, to the best of our knowledge, in an easy-to-understand format.
On a typical day, we are given about three and a half minutes to give you this information. If you've ever had to speak publicly, you'll know this is NOT much time at all. Our viewing area is the size of Ohio, and so sometimes it becomes tricky to give you a detailed forecast.
Let me lay out a scenario for you: In Amarillo, it will be sunny, warm, and breezy, while our 2nd largest city in the area, Clovis, NM, will see cloudy skies all day. As a result, the temperatures there will be much cooler. They will also see exceptionally strong wind, and perhaps some severe storms by late afternoon. Around Childress, temperatures will be near record breaking. There will be little to no cloud cover, and the wind will be light. Up in the Oklahoma Panhandle, they'll start the day with sunny skies, but cloud cover will increase through the day, and they may even end up with a few storms in the western half of the OK Panhandle by late afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s by midday, but will fall behind a cold front that will only pass through that part of the region. The wind will become strong by late afternoon. The wind will be out of the southwest for the entire region in the morning, strong west… light east. As the cold front moves through half the area, the wind will shift and blow from the northeast. The southern half of the region will continue to feel the southwesterly wind though, all day long as the front will not pass through that area.
So…we've got record breaking heat, abundant sunshine, heavy cloud cover, a cold front (only north), severe storms possible (only west), strong wind (only west), calm wind (farther east), dry conditions (central to eastern Panhandles), plus a temperature variation from around 75° out west to 98° farther southeast. THIS CAN AND DOES HAPPEN! Could it be any more complicated?!? Well…probably. This is the High Plains afterall, but let's just go with this scenario for now.
In three and a half minutes, it would be nearly impossible to cover each and every part of the area with as much detail as we'd like, especially if you consider the 5- to 7-day forecast period! Fortunately in this age of technology…that's what we use our website for!! We can write a novel if we want, and sometimes we almost do! If you care to read it, it's there for your viewing pleasure. You don't have to though, and that's the beauty of it!
During our on-air forecasts, we'll use words like, isolated thunderstorms, or widely-scattered thunderstorms, or variable wind, to give a generalization as to what you can expect the weather to do on any given day.
Storm Coverage/Probability
Isolated: ~20% chance of storms for your particular location
Widely-scattered: ~30-40% chance of storms for your particular location
Scattered: ~50-60% chance of storms for your particular location
Numerous: ~70-80% chance of storms for your particular location
Widespread/Likely: ~90-100% chance of storms for your particular location
Wind
Variable: The wind will blow from more than one direction during the course of the day (i.e. - S/SW to N/NE). Sometimes, when a surface area of low or high pressure sits directly overhead, the wind will shift around the compass throughout the day, and can't be pinned down to one direction. In that case, we will use variable to describe the direction. A light & variable wind blows from multiple directions through the day, only around 5-15 mph.
Light: 5-15 mph Normal: 10-20 mph
Breezy: 15-25 mph gusts to 35+ mph
Windy: 20-30 mph gusts to 40+ mph
Very Windy: 25-35 mph gusts to 55+ mph
Sky Conditions
Cloud cover can be a little more subjective. A sunny sky is pretty self-explanatory. We expect little to no cloud cover all day long. A mostly sunny sky generally means we expect a few high clouds, or maybe some fair weather cumulus in the afternoon. In general, there will be a lot more sunlight than cloud cover. A partly cloudy sky means there will be a mix of sun and clouds. It could be 50/50 coverage, or come and go throughout the day. A mostly cloudy sky means we'll see more cloud cover than sunlight. A cloudy sky is also pretty self-explanatory. Little to no direct sunlight will be seen through a thick deck of cloud cover.
If this isn't clear enough, we're always available to answer your questions online! We welcome your interest! You can get a hold of Storm Search 7 Chief Meteorologist Steve Kersh, Brian James, or me on Facebook, or even on the Pronews 7 Facebook page.
