Corn 
Corn futures are called 2 lower to 2 higher this morning. Corn was up 41 cents for the week last week on a pending short squeeze in the old crop May. Export sales totals released under the daily reporting system were huge last week totaling 2.1525 MMT of corn for 2012/13. A sale of 120,000 MT for corn to China for 2011/12 delivery announced on Friday boosted the old crop futures. There were no deliveries made against May futures on FND. Per the CFTC, Managed Money speculators decreased their net long from the previous week by 43,511 contracts. That was a larger decline than expected. The glass is either half empty (they are pulling out) or half full (there is money on the sidelines that could come back in). The trade is looking for US planting progress to be in the 42-46% range tonight, slowed a bit by rain events but still well ahead of the normal pace. Chinese futures were 4 cents higher on Monday. Overnight prices on Globex were 1 1/4 lower to 1 1/2 higher.

Soybeans 
Soybean futures are expected to start the day 4 to 10 cents lower, with weakness focused on the nearby contracts. Private exporters announced the sale of 116,000 MT to unknown and 110,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for 2012/13 delivery this morning. The soybean market also inverted on Friday, a sign of some tightness. However, there were much heavier than expected deliveries vs. the May contract overnight, with 752 put out by UBS client. The main stoppers were ABN AMRO and FC Stone clients. The soybean combined net long between Index Funds and Money Managers was 346,985 contracts as of Tuesday. Oil World believes global production of the 7 major oilseeds will be down 19 MMT. Consultant Informa reportedly cut its projection of Argentine production all the way to 40 MMT. Chinese futures were 3 cents higher on Monday. Globex prices were 3 to 10 cents lower.

Wheat 
Wheat futures are called 4 to 8 cents lower. Spot corn is now over HRW and SRW wheat prices. Managed Money decreased their net CBT wheat short by 10,224 contracts to 42,116 net shorts as of Tuesday, the reporting date. EU wheat futures are trading lower this morning as moisture conditions have eased. Information firm SovEcon reports that Russian wheat prices have stabilized at around $223.50/MT for so-called third grade milling wheat. Southern Russia remains on the dry side. There were only 2 delivery notices vs. May CBT wheat futures. There were zero notices against May on the MPLS exchange. The oldest long in MPLS (first to receive any delivery notice) is dated April 11. Globex prices were down 4 to 9 1/2 cents overnight.

Cattle 
Live Cattle futures are expected to start the week 20 lower to 20 higher. They were down $2.10 last week, all on Tuesday. Feeder cattle were down $1.35 for the week. Cash sales picked up in the Five Area Direct Market on Friday. Texas sales were down $1 to 3 at $119, KS was $119 to $120 and NE was $119 to $121. April cattle expire today and will leave a substantial downside gap on the on the weekly continuation chart. Wholesale boxed beef prices finished lower Friday after a ten day rally for Choice beef. Choice boxes are down $0.47 and Select was $1.25 lower.

Hogs 
Lean Hog futures are called 10 to 25 cents lower this morning. May Lean Hogs and the CME Lean Hog Index have to converge in mid-May at expiration. The Index was at 82.82 as of the 25th. Cash hogs were $0.05 higher in IA/MN, $0.34 lower in the WCB and $0.82 lower in the ECB on Friday. Weekly slaughter was estimated at 2,092 million head, compared to 2,084 million the prior week. The carcass cutout value was higher on Friday but on only 39.75 loads reported. The large speculative traders are now net short the hog market, and added to that short position in the reporting week ending April 24.

Cotton 
Cotton futures are trading 40 to 70 points lower this morning. Nearby May was down 81 points last week. Prices remain in consolidation. Cotton net export sales were the largest in a month with cotton prices last week trending lower along with the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies. May futures are in deliveries, but with none issued over the weekend. The total since FND has been 33. US Cert stocks are at 134,080 bales with 3,461 new Certs, and 1,857 bales awaiting review. Cotlook put the A Index at 99.60, down 0.85. The weekly CFTC report showed Managed Money added 8,108 net longs reversing their net short position from the previous week to a net long.

There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.

Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.