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November 8 Market Talk
Posted: 11.08.2012 at 12:20 PM
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CORN
As expected, export sales were poor at 157,600 MT. there is still a great deal of hope that sales will improve soon and the US does appear to be more competitive now than a month ago. In the meantime, however, we had an outside day higher on chart yesterday that suggests we should see some follow through buying very soon, but the fact that we have a Supply and Demand Report tomorrow will probably keep the buyers in check today. Analysts look for the bulk of today's session ti be a choppy, two sided affair.
WHEAT
Wheat export sales were poor at 209,400 MT for the old crop. Like the corn, there is a lot of world news that suggests we should have better export demand in the near future, but it hasn't shown up yet. On the other hand, the weather here in the US hasn't improved either, which will keep very good support under the new crop. the July KW is closing in on a contract high and could make it very soon if it doesn't rain.
SOYBEANS
Soybean export sales were surprisingly bad at 186,400 MT thanks to a big cancellation by unknown destinations. That won't help the market today especially since we have that report coming out tomorrow. For today, analysts look for the January soybean contract to trade inside a broad range between $14.80 and $15.20. It doesn't look like we will have any news that will give the market a clear direction ahead of the report.
LIVE CATTLE
Live Cattle futures closed moderately lower on Wednesday, as traders became fearful that equity weakness would spill over into the cattle. Spreading of lean hogs vs. cattle was also very active. A rise of nearly 5,800 in open interest on the selloff was seen as price negative. Overnight activity was modestly lower across the board, with volume seen as moderate. Bids and asking prices remain 3-4 Dollars apart going into today.
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder Cattle futures posted triple digit losses in all but the front month on Wednesday. Weakness in the Live and strength in the corn pressured the Feeders simultaneously. Cash index levels remain above 144.00, on a slight uptick over the past couple of days. Corn was trading near steady in overnight trade with a slightly higher bias. Yesterday's lows in the Jan Feeders have held in overnight trade, which could lead to a short covering bounce.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.
Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.