December 6 Market Talk
Posted: 12.06.2012 at 10:00 AM

CORN

Corn export sales came in at 51,600 MT and were considered very poor.  The number was due in part to cancellations by unknown destinations and the fact that the total wasn't going to be very high anyway.  Yesterday the market posted decent gains, but it is quickly giving back those gains as consolidation continues.  Other than the export sales, there is very little fresh news.  We will have an unemployment report released tomorrow that may cause volatility in the financial markets and next Tuesday is the day that the Supply and Demand Report will be released.  Analysts do not anticipate any big moves in either direction without fresh news.

WHEAT

The wheat is in a consolidation mode as well.  The forecasts are dry, but the export sales were reported poor at 353,100 MT, so there isn't much reason to see movement today.  The drought will keep support under the market, but it will take a pickup in demand to really make the market move.  Analysts look for a sideways trade today and for the market to begin drifting back to the middle of the range eventually.

SOYBEANS

Soybean export sales were tremendous at 1.14 MMT and meal and oil sales were good as well.  The soybean sales total was more than 5 times what we need to see each week and it is very likely that USDA increases the export estimate in either the December or January Supply and Demand Report.  The January contract is closing in on $15.00 and should make it soon.

LIVE CATTLE

Live Cattle futures closed moderately higher o Wednesday, reversing follow through weakness in early trade.  There has been no cash trade reported for the week thus far with bids and asking prices reported about $4 apart.  For the week, December Live Cattle is off .65 and remains at a premium to most of last week's cash trade.  Slaughter slowed to 119,000 on Wednesday, suggesting a lack of demand or shortage of available inventory.  This week's cash trade will likely determine which it is.

FEEDER CATTLE

Feeder Cattle futures closed .70 - .90 higher on Wednesday, in spite of solidly higher gains in the grain futures.  Overnight futures have continues to firm in the Feeders, with corn backing off about half of the previous day's gains.  Technical resistance for the January futures rests at the 40 day moving average of 147.10 according to analysts.  Cash index levels were up 19 for the day but remain 44 lower for the week.  Weekly export sales of 14,000 MT should be supportive for the beef complex.

CRUDE OIL

January crude oil prices were grinding higher during the initial morning hours, drafting support from a favorable outside market tone. European equity markets traded up to their best levels of the year and optimism that US lawmakers are making progress on resolving the fiscal cliff. Some traders indicated that geopolitical tensions could be receding this morning, as diplomats meet to discuss a peace plan in Syria and the Muslim Brotherhood calls for unity in Egypt. The US supply situation remains ample, despite yesterday's EIA data that showed a larger than expected draw last week of 2.357 million barrels. EIA crude stocks are 35.683 million barrels above year ago levels and stand 41.103 million barrels above the five year average. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 8.23 million barrels per day compared to 8.118 million barrels the previous week. The refinery operating rate was up 2.0% to 90.6%, which compares to 87.7% last year and the five year average of 86.49%. 

 



There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

By Donna Hughes
Lone Star Portfolio Advisors, Inc. was founded by Donna Hughes. Donna began her career in the industry in 1978 after graduating High School as a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Inspection and Delivery Department where she was responsible for scheduling and facilitating the USDA grading and delivery for various Exchange Commodities. After 1 ½ years, she was offered a position working with George Segal, a prominent hedger in the Pork Belly market. It was through this relationship that she was mentored and taught the hedging process by working with Mr. Segal as well as other leaders of the Pork Industry. In 2004, Donna moved to Texas where her skills in the industry were utilized to help individual and corporate producers with their Risk Management Goals. Her Daily Market Commentaries are heard on the AllAgNews.com Radio Network broadcasting throughout Texas. She also contributes to magazines and periodicals including PetroEvents and Ag Monthly.

Donna created Lone Star and implemented strategic relationships with Daniels Trading and R.J. O’Brien leveraging their services to enable Lone Star to Build Lasting Relationships Thru Information, Execution and Research.